Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, is warning investors that the oil market remains dangerously headline-driven and that equity markets may be significantly underestimating how long it will take for global oil supply to normalize.

In an interview with CNBC, the Houston-based energy analyst cautioned that while progress in peace talks could push oil prices (CO1:COM), (CL1:COM) down from current levels in the high 80s to low 90s toward the mid-to-high 70s, the physical reality of restoring supply flows is a far more complex timeline.

“Remember that it’s going to take several months to get things back to normal, assuming progress and peace talks actually translate into barrels flowing,” Pickering said.

He emphasized that traders should be watching longer-dated contracts for 2027 and 2028, which he expects to move higher as the market digests the substantial work required to restore normal operations.

Pickering expressed skepticism about the stock market’s apparent confidence that the conflict is nearing its end and that oil supply concerns can be dismissed.