A race is on to see whose economy breaks first in the war with Iran.

President Donald Trump is using a U.S. naval blockade to slowly strangle Iran’s economy to force the country’s leaders to relent — a process that could take weeks or even months. Meanwhile, Iran is betting that its closure of the Strait of Hormuz will send oil prices soaring and inflict enough pain on the U.S. economy to force Trump to back down — a risk that oil analysts say could be just a few weeks away from playing out.

Who blinks first in the standoff could determine whether the eight-week war ends soon or escalates into something worse. It is a new stage of a conflict that points to prolonged pain for Iranians, Americans and a global economy that is being starved of critical energy supplies.

“The battlefield has moved from the military to the economy, for right now,” said Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners, an energy-focused financial services platform. “We’ve stopped dropping bombs, and now we’re just trying to squeeze each other. And I think both sides are probably showing more resilience than you would have expected.”