Dan Pickering expects the Iran conflict to outlast U.S. midterms, keeping oil prices elevated amid China’s return and risks to Saudi oil supplies.
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The oil outlook has shifted from potential surplus to sustained tightness—and Dan Pickering does not expect a quick return to the market that existed before the fighting in Iran began earlier this year.
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US maritime patrols are shifting control of the Strait of Hormuz, as vessels increasingly use the Omani route despite continued threats from Iran.
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Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz fee system could generate billions annually, reshape Gulf security, and permanently alter global energy markets.
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We are enthusiastic dip buyers, while refusing to be rally sellers.
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Oil and gas companies are expected to report enormous profit growth as the war in Iran drives energy prices higher, but their stocks continue to underperform because investors question whether those gains will last. Political sensitivity and uncertainty around oil prices may also make companies reluctant to immediately increase dividends or stock buybacks.
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President Trump initially celebrated rising oil prices because they boosted U.S. energy profits. However, after the Iran war pushed crude prices from roughly $66 to an average of $95 per barrel between March and June, oil companies and their allies are now poised to receive major financial gains. The situation has become politically inconvenient for Trump, who is no longer pleased with the consequences of the price surge.
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Iran’s renewed threat to the Strait of Hormuz leaves Trump facing a stark choice as oil reserves shrink, fuel prices rise, and the conflict escalates.
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Oil prices climb as cracks in the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, renewed Hormuz tensions, and potential strikes revive volatility in global energy markets.
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