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Dan Pickering provides insights in The Wall Street Journal on how the upcoming election could impact the energy sector, emphasizing the trade-off between industry growth under Trump and commodity price stability under Harris.
Dan Pickering offers his insights on the upcoming election and its potential impact on the energy industry in the latest The Wall Street Journal article from Jinjoo Lee: "Trump is friendlier to the industry and riskier to the commodity price, while Harris is riskier for the industry and more bullish for price."
This highlights a fundamental trade-off in the energy sector: the balance between industry growth and commodity price stability.
Oil and gas companies are expected to report enormous profit growth as the war in Iran drives energy prices higher, but their stocks continue to underperform because investors question whether those gains will last. Political sensitivity and uncertainty around oil prices may also make companies reluctant to immediately increase dividends or stock buybacks.
President Trump initially celebrated rising oil prices because they boosted U.S. energy profits. However, after the Iran war pushed crude prices from roughly $66 to an average of $95 per barrel between March and June, oil companies and their allies are now poised to receive major financial gains. The situation has become politically inconvenient for Trump, who is no longer pleased with the consequences of the price surge.
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