President Trump wants to drive down oil prices to $50 a barrel. Getting to that price appears doable with Venezuela, though keeping it there comes with risks.

The good news for the administration is that, if the real goal is to lower gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, global oil prices might not need to come down that much.

Oil was already trading below $60 before news emerged last weekend of the U.S. capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, with the front-month futures price for the U.S. benchmark oil around $57 a barrel. On Thursday, the price settled at $57.76 a barrel.

The oil price was already headed toward the $50 level even without the potential addition of barrels from Venezuela, notes Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners. Production from OPEC and others such as Brazil, Guyana, and Canada has been strong, and there were already expectations of an oil glut, he said. In a December forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected global oil inventory to rise by more than 2 million barrels a day in 2026.

Before Maduro’s capture, Goldman Sachs estimated that the U.S. benchmark crude price would average $52 a barrel in 2026. The investment bank estimates that prices could average $50 a barrel this year if production from Venezuela increased by 400,000 barrels a day. Venezuela produces around 900,000 barrels today. The increase could be possible with relatively shorter-term fixes, such as making available more diluent—the light crude that needs to be mixed with Venezuela’s heavy crude to make transportation easier—repairing wells, reactivating damaged crude-upgrading facilities, and removing sanctions, according to Goldman.

Venezuela’s share of global oil production is small—at less than 1%—but adding a few hundred thousand barrels a day can materially push prices downward, notes Robert Auers, an analyst at energy consulting firm RBN Energy. For example, 400,000 barrels represents roughly half of the global oil demand increase that the International Energy Agency expects to see in 2026.

Two other major forces might, however, get in the way of a sustained low oil price environment: OPEC+ and U.S. producers. The two account for roughly half and a fifth of global oil supply, respectively, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Oil prices between $55 and $60 a barrel haven’t been enough to spur production cuts from either, but going below $55 a barrel could.

Saudi Arabia isn’t going to be happy with Brent crude prices in the 50s, said Gary Ross, chief executive officer of Black Gold Investors. Brent crude is typically about $4 higher than U.S. benchmark crude and settled at roughly $62 on Thursday. While the Saudis might not be inclined to ruffle Trump’s feathers, there is a nonzero possibility that OPEC would decide to cut production if low oil prices were causing too much pain. Most member countries require oil prices well above $60 a barrel to balance their fiscal budgets; Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even price is $86.60 a barrel for 2026, according to an estimate from the International Monetary Fund.

Most recently, OPEC+ confirmed that it would keep production steady until the end of March. Still, Saudi Arabia’s calculus can be unpredictable. During past episodes of low oil prices, the Saudis have sometimes reacted by ramping up production rather than cutting it to defend their market share.

U.S. producers might also need to cut production if oil prices decline further. Diamondback Energy, one of the biggest independent Permian producers, said in an earnings call last year that if oil prices stay in the “low 50s” for a month, the company might have to think about cutting its investment. Last year, Permian oil producers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said West Texas Intermediate oil prices had to be around $61 to $62 a barrel to profitably drill a new well.

Importantly, though, it might not take a $50 benchmark oil price to bring down costs at the pump.

If sanctions are lifted, the U.S. would get Venezuelan crude more quickly than the rest of the world, says Ross of Black Gold Investors. And Venezuela’s cheap, heavy crude could alleviate a shortage of similar oil now imported from Mexico and Canada—which most U.S. refineries are optimized for. Mexican production is in long-term decline, and more Canadian crude has been diverted to the West Coast market after a pipeline expansion was completed in 2024, according to John Auers, managing director of RBN Energy.

With midterm elections looming in the fall, it is understandable why lower oil prices are on the White House agenda. But oil prices somewhere above $50 a barrel might be the sweet spot that satisfies two important constituents—American drivers and big oil producers.