Exxon Stock Hits Record High. Trump Spat Is Already Blowing Over.
Exxon stock hit a record on Tuesday, rising 1.5% to $125.94. The oil giant is winning the hearts of investors, even as it’s getting the cold shoulder from the president.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that he’s “inclined to keep Exxon Mobil out” of Venezuela, after the oil giant’s CEO expressed hesitancy about drilling there during a meeting at the White House on Friday.
Being on Trump’s bad side is an uncomfortable place to be for most companies. But Exxon’s hesitancy about Venezuela makes good business sense, and investors are rewarding the company for being prudent with its capital. Exxon says it’s trying to grow its earnings by $25 billion by 2030. The company won’t get there if it spends too much capital on uncertain opportunities like Venezuela, without protections from the government.
At first blush, the schism between the president and Exxon looks problematic. But Trump’s statement is likely just the beginning of what will be a long negotiation between the oil giants and the administration.
Oil companies and the government are counterparties in the rebuilding of Venezuela, not partners, noted Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners in Houston.
“To me it’s all part of a negotiation that’s happening in public,” he said. “I would not count Exxon out of this.”
In any negotiation, Pickering added, counterparties tend to start out at their most extreme position.
Exxon has little to gain from jumping back into Venezuela at a time when oil prices are falling and the company has better opportunities elsewhere. And Trump will need all the help he can get if he really wants to jump-start this industry without spending tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer money.
Nonetheless, Exxon investors shivered a bit on Monday. It’s chilly being outside of Trump’s embrace. The stock fell 0.5% on Monday. Competitor Chevron was up 0.1%.
Exxon had a long history in Venezuela, but it ended abruptly in 2007, when former President Hugo Chávez expropriated the company’s assets. Exxon initially said it was owed $16.6 billion and went through a long court process to get some of it back.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods was at the White House on Friday to participate in a meeting with the president and his top energy advisers about the potential to drill for oil in Venezuela. In a portion of the meeting that was broadcast live, Trump asked the executives to talk about their plans. Woods praised Trump but sounded skeptical about whether it makes sense to invest in producing oil in Venezuela.
“We’ve had our assets seized there twice. And so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen here,” he said. “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestible. To get Exxon to go back in would take significant changes.”
“We’re confident that with this administration and President Trump working hand in hand with the Venezuelan government that those changes can be put in place,” Woods added.
Exxon didn’t respond to a request for comment on the president’s statements.
Other companies, including ConocoPhillips, appeared unwilling to jump directly back into the country, too. But Trump singled out Exxon in a back-and-forth with reporters on Air Force One on Sunday.
“I didn’t like their response. They’re playing too cute,” Trump said.
Let the negotiations begin.
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