The seemingly endless morass of the Iran war with its rinse-and-repeat cycle of peace talks, collapsing negotiations, and modest escalations of violence is likely to continue at least through the congressional midterms in November and potentially beyond, geopolitical and energy analysts said.

Why? Iranian officials—divided between public-facing politicians and the increasingly powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—want to maximize their leverage and political harm to President Donald Trump in the election cycle. With the U.S. and Iran far apart in peace talks and more oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. escort of late, Iran is increasingly losing, leaving them with the option of maintaining the status quo or intensifying their attacks.

“It feels like ‘Groundhog Day,’” said Matt Reed, president of geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, citing the classic Bill Murray film about repeating the same day ad nauseum.

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